Predictions for the New Year

With all of the old media and new media hacks trying their hands at prognostication, I might as well do the same. So here is my grim prognosis for the New Year.

• Riots in China: hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers from remote villages have earned their livings in large coastal cities, most with no legal rights to live in those cities. With the cooling economy these workers are returning home. The lucky ones still have a family plot of land where they can grow enough food to live (if not to prosper). The unlucky ones have seen their land appropriated (with little compensation) by local governments and handed over to corporations. Without a major policy change by the government, these workers will become disillusioned and demand a better life for them and their families.
• Collapse of commodity prices: The steep reduction in energy costs will temporarily drive a reduced production of ethanol, freeing up corn for animal feed and reducing the price of other staples (such as barley). This should make items ranging from breakfast cereal to beer cheaper, which will be needed because of…
• Continued recession in the US: Further job loss and reduced economic output in the US through at least November of 2009.

There you go, and in twelve months we can see how I stack up to the people that get paid for this sort of stuff. The great thing about predicting doom and gloom is that you are happy to be proven wrong.